Monday, July 27, 2015

Did You Tell Me To Go To Shell?



It's an interesting argument that is going on nowadays.  What appraiser should be used for accurate grading and do you want your appraised comic in a Shell that, if opened, voids the appraisal?  I have heard, and read, both sides of the argument and needed to take a stand on the shell, the large appraisal companies, and what those same companies are doing to the comic industry.

First, I have to praise Metropolis Comics and Collectibles.  When I do a search on "comic appraising" or "comic appraisals",  Metropolis Comics and Collectibles is the first to come up.  That is either incredible search engine optimization (SEO) management or it's just that so many searches are made on them it puts them near the top.  My vote is that they do some incredible SEO management.  Either way, my hat is off to Metropolis Comics and Collectibles.  I'd like to go there just to tip my hat in person.

The funny thing is that the big appraisal houses aren't even on the first page of the search.  Neither is the Comic Whisperer, mind you, but we don't even have a site up yet.

Now, let's talk numbers really quick, they will be used to prove a point:

In order for CGC to do their "Modern" service they estimate turnaround time at 20 business days.  BUT their current turnaround time, according to their website, is 55 business days.

Cost?  $18 per book, with the book only being allowed to have an estimated value of $200.

For the "Modern Fast Track" service the estimated turnaround time is 10 business days.  BUT their current turnaround time, according to their website, is 25 business days.

Cost?  $28 per book, again with the maximum value of $200.

So, let me see if I get this right, their current turnaround time for the "Fast Track" is LONGER than their estimated turnaround time for the "Modern" service of 20 business days, but you are paying $10 more per book.

Don't forget the $5 "handling fee" per invoice that applies to all grading tiers.

Let's do some more math.  CGC claims to have over 100,000 comics submitted to them per year.

If we make the assumption that they don't work on weekends (which you can bet on) we can estimate that they work approximately 22 business days per month.  22 x 12 is 264 working days per year.  BUT WAIT!  Don't forget holidays.  Companies offer between 10 and 17 holidays per year.  Let's go with 10.  264-10=254 working days per year.  Check my math.

So, we take 100,000 comics divided by 254 days per year and we get...um...394 (actually 393.7) comics going through their door per business day.

Assuming an 8 hour work day you have 394 divided by 8 and we get...hmmm...49 (49.25 actually) comics being graded per hour.  Keep in mind that each comic goes through 3 different people looking at it before being graded.  So, let's say your comic gets some incredible levels of attention and you have 3 people taking a total of 1 hour to look at it.  That's 147 people looking at 1 comic per hour (49 comics per hour times 3 people doing the grading).  How do they pay for all that?  Wait, they don't...you do.

Although I could go into the other big house, it's a lot of the same, just different prices.

So, after they're done, they put your comic is a custom designed shell with all sorts of gadgets and doohickeys that keep it from being opened.  You pay for that too.  But should you do a shell at all?  Here are the two side of the argument:

TO SHELL:  If you are submitting a comic that you intend to sell there is no better way to confirm value than to have it appraised and have it in a shell with the grading right on it.  To make it even better, as long as the seal isn't broken the appraisal will always be considered accurate.  If I then look in a pricing guide I can make the grade to a price and put it up for sale.  Another advantage is preservation.  If I have a $5,000 comic and I don't want anything to happen to it, the shell is an excellent way to preserve your comic.  There is no doubt that for the person selling the comic or preserving a comic, this may be a good choice.

NOT TO SHELL:  If you're a comic collector like me, you read your comics.  You enjoy them.  It's why you bought it in the first place.  You may even go so far as to bag and board them in a quality bag with a quality board.  You then keep them in a box in a dry cool place.  I can pull out a comic from 20 years ago that I bagged and boarded and it will be in the same shape it was when I got it and without a shell.  The key part?  I can read it, put it back in, and not have to pay to get it reappraised.  I know I didn't damage it, and I know the value didn't change, so why all the fuss?  If I really want to sell them, non-shelled books take top dollar all the time on buyer boards, eBay, etc.

The choice is yours and there are advantages either way, but there is a catch that not many are aware of...so let me fill you in.

The big comic appraising houses can sway the marketplace.  In one of my previous posts I talked about my own test with the two big houses where the same comic was was graded different and the grades were 1.0 full point apart (see my previous post Comic Book Appraising...Why People Need To Think Twice About Who Does The Appraising).

So, let's use the example from that blog...the same comic came back from one appraisal house at a 7.2,  the same comic came back from the second appraisal house at a grade of 8.4.  A difference of 1.2 points.  That is over a 10% difference on the 10 point grading scale.

But how could that effect the industry?  By swaying the prices garnered by those comics and possibly devaluating them.

Let's look at Captain America #100.  According to Comic Book Realm, our favorite pricing site, that comic at an 8.4 (or VF+) is valued at $900.  But if you go by the grading of 7.2 (or F/VF) you get a value of $550.  That's a difference of $350 that's a remarkable 38% difference!  And, take my word for this, if we are talking Action Comics #1, the price difference is closer to $1,100,000.  Ouch!

So, when these comics are let go into the marketplace they can swing pricing dramatically and overvalue or undervalue comics.  Think of it this way.  If you and one other person showed up for auction, and the same comic (but two copies) went up for sale would you rather buy the 8.4 or the 7.2?  Would you rather be the seller for the 8.4 or the 7.2?

Will it make a sweeping change that will destroy the industry?  No. Is the pricing and turnaround time for 2 different ratings on the same comic out of hand?  Sure it is.  Metropolis Comics and Collectibles offers to give your comic the once over and give an estimated appraisal for FREE.  How far off would it be from the big houses, not much.

But the fault for all of this lies with the sellers and buyers.  Yes, those of you who INSIST on a shelled, big appraisal house, grading.  I was in a pawn shop recently and I asked if he carried comic books.  He said that he didn't and, if he did, he would insist on grading from CGC.  It's a shame really.

Am I saying the big houses are not worth it or they should step aside for your hometown appraisers?  No, there are needs that are met thoroughly and easily by them.  Should they be the only grades worth working with?  Not when they can be separated by 1.2 they're not.

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